Analysis

Microsoft is printing money while everyone else burns it

In the same AI spending race, Microsoft’s operations still cover the bill with cash to spare, while Alphabet’s cash flow has turned negative.

Key points

  • Microsoft grew revenue 19% to $92.3 billion in July to September, kept a 49.8% operating margin and beat estimates on revenue and earnings.
  • Operating cash flow of $58.0 billion covered $39.4 billion of cash capital spending, leaving $18.6 billion of free cash flow, against −$9.1 billion at Alphabet.
  • Commercial backlog rose 73% to $677 billion and Azure grew 48%, though rising capital spending and a lease accounting change are worth watching.

Microsoft and Alphabet reported on the same evening, both in the middle of the biggest infrastructure build-out in tech history. Alphabet fell about 10% after hours. Microsoft rose about 4%.

The difference wasn’t how much they spent. It was what the spending sat next to. In July to September, Microsoft grew revenue 19% to $92.3 billion, kept an operating margin near 50%, and beat expectations on revenue, operating income and earnings. Adjusted EPS of $4.89 topped the $4.73 consensus, and revenue beat the $90.7 billion estimate by about $1.6 billion.

Cash flow covers the build-out

Microsoft generated $58.0 billion of operating cash flow, up 29% from a year ago. That covered $39.4 billion of cash capital spending with room to spare, leaving $18.6 billion of free cash flow. Even after the build-out, Microsoft returned $10.2 billion to shareholders, repaid $4.9 billion of debt and trimmed its share count.

That cash also comes from mature businesses like Office and Windows, so it doesn’t isolate the return on AI. But it means Microsoft can keep building without relying on outside money.

Margins held while the bill grew

Operating margin rose to 49.8% from 48.9% a year earlier, and operating income grew 21% to $45.9 billion, faster than revenue.

Microsoft kept overhead flat while AI costs climbed

Year-over-year growth, July to September 2026

Show the numbers
Growth
Depreciation and amortization44%
Cost of revenue24%
Operating income21%
Revenue19%
Operating expenses6%

Source: Microsoft fiscal first quarter 2027 results

The AI costs are real. Depreciation rose 44%, and gross margin slipped from 69.0% to 67.8%. What protected profit was discipline elsewhere: research, sales and admin costs grew just 6% while revenue grew 19%.

One note on earnings per share. Reported EPS jumped 32% to $4.92, partly because last year’s quarter took a $0.41 hit from losses on Microsoft’s OpenAI stake. Excluding OpenAI in both years, EPS grew a still-strong 18%.

A record backlog

The strongest number in the report isn’t revenue. It is commercial remaining performance obligation, the value of contracts customers have signed but Microsoft hasn’t delivered yet. It rose 73% to $677 billion.

That backlog covers all commercial contracts, not just AI, and it says nothing about how profitable they will be to deliver. But a 73% jump in the middle of a build-out suggests much of the new capacity has customers waiting for it.

  • Azure revenue reached $33.2 billion, up 48%, and is now Microsoft’s largest single business.
  • Microsoft Cloud revenue reached $63.9 billion, with growth accelerating to 30%.
  • Next quarter’s guidance calls for Azure growth of 49% to 50% in constant currency, above the 45.1% consensus, and revenue of $96.0 billion to $97.1 billion.

Microsoft says about 75% of its capital spending now goes to short-lived assets such as GPUs and CPUs, up from about half a year ago. Those start earning almost as soon as they are installed. Finance chief Amy Hood said demand still exceeds supply.

Same race, different economics

Both companies spend roughly 40% of revenue or more on capital projects. Microsoft turns nearly twice as much of its revenue into operating cash.

Microsoft converts far more revenue into cash

Percent of revenue, July to September 2026

  • Microsoft
  • Alphabet
Show the numbers
MicrosoftAlphabet
Operating margin49.8%31.8%
Operating cash flow62.9%33.1%
Cash capital spending42.7%40.3%

Source: Microsoft and Alphabet quarterly results

The result: Microsoft produced +$18.6 billion of free cash flow and returned $10.2 billion to shareholders. Alphabet produced −$9.1 billion and paid only its dividend while issuing new shares. Alphabet grows faster at the top line. Microsoft turns its growth into cash, and that is what the market rewarded.

What could still go wrong

  • Free cash flow is falling: it dropped 27% from a year ago. Capital spending including finance leases was $45.2 billion. That isn’t a cash figure, but it shows total investment is larger than the $39.4 billion of cash spending suggests.
  • An accounting change flatters capital spending: Microsoft now depreciates data centers over 25 years instead of 15. Management says the profit effect is minimal, but more future data-center leases will sit outside the reported spending figure. That changes the presentation, not the underlying commitment.
  • Spending is still accelerating: Hood expects capital spending to rise in the second half of the fiscal year, and said Microsoft may tap outside funding when it is attractive.
  • Consumer is weak: Windows OEM and devices revenue fell 22%, and the Devices and Consumer segment shrank 3%.
  • Capacity timing: some third-party data-center deliveries slipped from this quarter, which pushes spending and revenue later.

Microsoft is showing what well-covered AI spending looks like: revenue up 19%, margins near 50%, operating cash covering the build-out and a $677 billion commercial backlog. One quarter can’t prove the return on AI, but for now Microsoft is the clearest example among the big spenders of heavy investment sitting alongside rising revenue, steady margins and positive cash flow.

Sources

  1. Microsoft announces first quarter fiscal 2027 results microsoft.com
  2. Microsoft stock jumps 4% as cloud growth drives earnings and revenue beat (CNBC) cnbc.com
  3. Microsoft results against LSEG consensus (Jingletree, via CNBC) jingletree.com
  4. Microsoft extends data-center useful life to 25 years (Yahoo Finance) finance.yahoo.com
  5. Alphabet announces third quarter 2026 results s206.q4cdn.com